1. Natural Gas Inventory Data :
Previous : 67Bcf
Forecast/Survey : 64Bcf
Impact: It might have a positive impact on Gas prices.
U.S. natural gas futures were little changed to slightly higher early Thursday, as hot weather lingered in consuming regions in the Northeast, boosting air conditioning demand.
Most traders and analysts expect weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will show a build of about 64 billion cubic feet when it is released today at about 8:00 p.m. IST, a Reuters poll showed, versus last year’s adjusted build of 90 bcf and a five-year average increase for that week of 87 bcf.
2. Natural Gas COMEX Fundamental Outlook
LIGHT BUILD BUT STORAGE STILL AT RECORD Last week’s EIA gas storage report showed total domestic gas inventories rose by 67 bcf to 2.944 trillion cubic feet.
PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWING, STILL RECORD OUTPUT Gas demand picked up sharply this year as spring prices hit 10-year lows, prompting some electric utilities to switch from coal to cheaper gas for power generation.
3. Natural Gas Technical Outlook COMEX :
That said, upon another shock from the EIA Natural Gas Storage report there is still a reasonable probability for the move up to continue. A close over $2.65 is not expected from a technical standpoint, but would in turn open the way for $2.78 and higher.
The 38% retracement from $2.168 to $2.679 is $2.48. Look for $2.48 to be met in early trading tomorrow before the EIA report is released. A move below this would then call for $2.35, which is the 62% retracement.
NGN12 Retracements to $2.679
The 78% retracement from $2.838 to $2.168 is $2.69, which has held thus far. This is also near key resistance at $2.65. Should prices close over $2.65 look for the 89% retracement near $2.78 to be met. This is the last level of resistance that is protecting the $2.838 swing high.
NGN12 Retracements to $2.168
The daily candlesticks formed a bearish dark cloud cover on Tuesday. Prices tried to negate this pattern by rising to $2.679 on Wednesday, but they failed to close above Monday’s $2.55 midpoint. This is negative and indicates the move down should continue tomorrow morning to at least $2.48. This is near the $2.47 confirmation point for the dark cloud cover. A close below $2.48 would confirm the dark cloud cover and then call for the midpoint of last Thursday’s candlestick at $2.35 to be met.
NGN12 Daily Candlesticks