Crude Oil MCX/NYMEX : The Event to Watch for the day is EIA Crude Oil Inventories ,

Previous : -0.111M

Forecast/Expected :-1.411M to -1.6M

Actual : -0.2 (-0.191M)

INFO>> Libya’s oil output has climbed back to 1.5 million barrels per day. Libya was pumping a little under 1.6 million bpd before its civil war.

News>>OPEC, US Govt see easing oil market conditions ahead: OPEC and the U.S. government agreed on Tuesday that global oil markets could loosen further in the second half of the year, with prospects for demand dimming while non-OPEC supply races ahead more quickly than expected.

In its monthly report on market fundamentals, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year by 150,000 barrels per day to 810,000 bpd as the European crisis continues to weigh on the world economy. Rapid growth in U.S. and Canadian production forced the agency to revise up its estimates for non-OPEC output.

Oil prices have been steady over the last twenty four hours after a short covering rally driven by a recovery in the euro and equity markets in Europe and the US after Monday’s post Spanish bailout sell-off. We are now entering the major event period for the month of June with the OPEC meeting kicking off tomorrow and the Greek elections on Sunday. Also since yesterday the EIA, IEA and OPEC have all released their oil forecasts while today the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report. Last night the API data showed a surprise build in crude oil and decline in gasoline stocks

Our Morning Crude Oil Call;

6/13/2012 10:11 Sell Crude Oil @4650-70 T1:4630 T2:4605,T3:4580 SL above:4740, SecondSell:4690

Our Analysts are  still expecting a rollover with no production cuts from the OPEC meeting. We still of the view that the Saudi’s will keep oil production high even if oil prices continue to decline. We believe part of the strategy is to add pressure on Iran with lower oil prices and thus hope that it motivates Iran and the West to eventually negotiate a deal over Iran’s nuclear issues. The next Iran/West meeting is in Moscow early next week.

At the moment most risk asset markets are still in a downtrend even after a short covering rally yesterday. The technicals for all of the markets are also suggesting lower values going forward. However, event risk will take over as the main price driver for all of the risk asset markets including the oil complex as the macro correlations remain very tightly linked.


  • Crude Oil Survey:  -1500K, Prior:  -111K
  • Gasoline Survey: 1400K, Prior: 3346K
  • Distillate Survey: 1175, Prior: 2253K
  • Ref. utilization  Survey: 0.00% , Prior: 1.90

Levels to Watch :

NYMEX Crude Oil – July’12      Supports 82.04   82.63     Resistances 83.82   84.42   Trading range Expected : 82.50-84 %

MCX Crude Oil – June’12 Supports 4602    4618  Resistances  4660    4686

Trading range Expected 4580-4680

Our Morning Call is Achieved

6/13/2012 17:54 Book Profit in Crude,Sold @ 4650-70,low:4621 Target1 is Achieved,Profit: per lot Rs.3000

Our Morning Call Target2 is Achieved

6/13/2012 18:14 Book Profit in Crude,Sold @ 4650-70,Low:4588 Target2 is Achieved,Profit: per lot – Rs.6000+


  • Crude Oil Actual: -191K  Survey:  -1500K, Prior:  -111K  
  • Gasoline Actual:  -1724K   Survey: 1400K, Prior: 3346K  
  • Distillate Actual: -63K    Survey: 1175, Prior: 2253K
  • Ref. utilization  Actual: 1.0%   Survey: 0.00% , Prior: 1.90%

Free momentum Call: Buy Crude @ Cmp: 4637-42,T1:4662,T2:4682,SL:4580 @ 13.06.12,8:05 PM

Data Impact : Crude stocks and other oil products stocks have declined as compare to its expectation figures. So it may have positive impact on crude oil prices. 

Momentum Call update : Buy Given @ 4637,High Made: 4670,T1 Achieved, Profit:3000+ per lot @ 13.06.12,8:11 PM


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