CRUDE Oil prices are trading at $93.36/Rs. 5150 levels marginally down from yesterday’s close. Today we could see oil testing Rs. 5100 or 5080 for August future during the day. Tonight DOE petroleum data expected at 8 PM IST where in we should see less decline in inventories of crude oil and oil products while distillates shows some kind of increase in inventory. In fact oil imports

So, overall we believe initially some kind of pressure may be noticed on oil prices. Today morning API released its weekly inventory data which showed insignificant figures suggesting tonight data should also come slightly negative.

However, we have to look at the actual figures. Technically if market holds above Rs. 5080/5090 we may expect oil to again rebound back to Rs. 5160. A daily close above Rs. 5160 we should see oil bouncing further back to Rs. 5200 then Rs. 5250 levels. Those who are on sell side hold on to the positions until tonight inventories data for clear direction.

DOE INVENTORY DATA EXPECTATION (8:00PM)  

  • Crude Oil :  Survey: -1550K, Prior:  -6522K
  • Gasoline   : Survey:  -1750 K, Prior: -2174K
  • Distillate  : Survey: 250K, Prior: -974K
  • Ref. utilization : Survey: -0.50%, prior: -0.80%

Crude Oil Inventory Actual  : -3.7M, Expected : -0.6M, Previous : -6.5

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