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Cancelled warrant ratio :
Copper Update: Among entire metals pack, Copper has been relatively immune to the recent plunge witnessed by other metals this week. Fundamentally, metal inventory has witnessed stockpiling at LME and inventories increased by 10.95 percent. Even cancelled warrants were relatively low compared to last month.
Lower demand and weak economic activity has resulted in increased selling positions and due to short covering, prices have remained relatively stable. Since the June Contract is about to expire, we recommend remaining bearish in the short term. Based on technical analysis expecting prices to trade toward lower side and recommend to hold short positions with strict stop loss above 432 on weekly
Base Metals Update @ 05:00 PM
As foreseen in our morning report base metal futures are trading up by 0.19 to 1.45 percent at MCX.
The Asian equities closed positive while the European markets are also trading up by nearly 2 percent supporting gains in base metals. The European releases in the form German retail sales and Euro-zone money supply remained weak restricting much upside. Further, the European Summit is also likely to remain fragile on the back of rising borrowing costs of Spain and Italy. Common Euro bonds remains out of picture while fiscal union of the member nations may support slight gains in base metals.
Fundamentally, spot activities of Zinc are slowly ramping and may continue to restrict much downside.
In late evening, the US releases are expected to remain mostly unchanged and may continue to support gains. Even personal consumption may decline as increased investment in durables and mortgagesÂ may continue to support gains in metals. Overall, we recommend initiating buying positions at lowerÂ levels for the rest of the trading session.
Natural gas futures jumped to a five-month high in New York on forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather that would boost fuel demand from power plants.
Natural gas traded lower during U.S. afternoon hours as profit takers arrived after the fuel reached 5 week highs on extremely hot weather.
Investors also eyed Thursdayâ€™s closely-watched U.S. government report on natural gas supplies.
Data Impact : Increase in actual figures from its expectation may have slight negative impact on prices.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in July traded at USD2.786 per million British thermal units during U.S. afternoon trade, giving back 0.77%.
It earlier rose by as much as 2% to trade at a session high of USD2.947 per million British thermal units, which was the highest since January 10. The July contract is due to expire at the end Wednesdayâ€™s trading session.
Meanwhile, the more actively traded contract for August delivery surged 3.45% to trade at USD2.905 per million British thermal units. The August contract rose by as much as 5% earlier to trade at a session high of USD2.971, also the highest since January 10.
Natural gas prices were boosted by forecasts showing extremely warmer-than-normal weather across most parts of the U.S. in the coming ten days.
The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that temperatures were expected to reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) later this week from the Mississippi River to the mid-Atlantic.
Chicago is expected to reach 100 in two days and Washington may see 99 by the end of the week, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters at MDA EarthSat echoed that sentiment, saying temperatures across the U.S. are expected to rise well above normal next week, with the central U.S. expected to see “extreme” temperatures.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning, boosting demand for natural gas. Natural gas accounts for about a quarter of U.S. electricity generation.
Meanwhile, market players shifted their focus to the U.S. Energy Information Administrationâ€™s closely-watched weekly report on natural gas inventories scheduled for Thursday.
Early injection estimates range from 40 billion cubic feet to 55 billion cubic feet, compared to last year`s build of 84 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 85 billion cubic feet.
The U.S. EIA said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 62 billion cubic feet 3.006 trillion cubic feet last week, narrowing the surplus to 29% above last year`s level and 27% above the five-year average level for that week.
The smaller-than-expected increase indicated that demand for the fuel is better-than-expected and suggested that demand for natural gas among power utilities remains strong.
The weekly gas report has been â€œbullishâ€ in 10 of the past 11 weeks, raising expectations that record-high storage can be trimmed to more manageable levels in the 21 weeks left before winter withdrawals begin.
Natural gas prices are up nearly 30% since touching a decade-low of USD1.902 on April 19, amid indications major North American natural gas producers were cutting back on production.
Speculation that utility providers in the U.S. were switching from pricier coal to cheaper natural gas provided further support over recent weeks.
However, market players noted that sustained prices back above USD2.50 and toward the USD3.00-level likely would inspire some switching back to coal.
Market analysts have warned that without strong demand through the rest of the summer, gas inventories will reach the limits of available capacity later this year.
U.S. gas inventories did not hit the milestone 3 trillion cubic feet level until August 31 of last year.
The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by at least another 435 billion cubic feet to avoid breaching the government`s 4.1 trillion cubic feet estimate of total capacity.
Important Levels For Natural Gas @ 5:30 PM
MCX Natural Gas -July’12
Â NYMEX Natural Gas – Aug’12 Â Â Â
Update @ 1:30 PM
Cancelled warrant ratio :
IMPACT: Metal inventories witnessed slight drawdown except Copper and Aluminum while the cancelled warrants have remained weak. Zinc warrants have witnessed record increase and may support gains while other base metals may follow the developments of the European summit and economic releases
Free PositionalÂ StrategyÂ Call: Sell Aluminium Jul @ Cmp:106.9 & Buy Zinc Jul @Cmp::102.10, CurrentÂ Difference: +4.8, Target: +2.5, SL:+ 8 -www.Commodity20.com @ 28.06.12,1:31 PM
Update @ 05:00 PM
As foreseen in our morning report base metal futures are trading up by 0.1 to 1.3 percent except Copper.
The Asian equities performed mixed while the European equities are trading down ahead of Â the key European summit. The German unemployment increased while the Euro-zone confidence numbers dwindled supporting fall of the shared currency.
In the evening, session anticipation over Euro-summit may provide increased volatility among base metals. From the economic data front, the US labor releases might continue to remain at a blend while GDP and personal consumption may decline further weakening base metals. Overall, we expect metals pack to remain strong on the back of European summit coupled with unchanged economic expectation. Fundamentally, cancelled warrants of Zinc have increased drastically and might continue to support gains for the rest of the session.
Free PositionalÂ StrategyÂ Call Update 1 :
Aluminium Jul Sold @ 106.9,Cmp:106.10 Â & Zinc Jul Bought @ 102.10,Cmp: 102.6 Â CurrentÂ Difference: +3.5, One Can Book Profit of Rs. 6500+ per lot, High Risk Trader Can Still Hold positions for Target – www.Commodity20.firstname.lastname@example.org,5:38 PM
Base Metals Update @ 08:00 PM : Metal prices are witnessing a smart pull back in the evening session. Form the technical end expecting to continue fall.
Free PositionalÂ StrategyÂ Call Update 2 :
Aluminium Jul Sold @ 106.9, Cmp:105.05 Â & Â
Zinc Jul Bought @ 102.10,Cmp: 102.65
Â CurrentÂ Difference:+2.4,Â Target Achieved,
EveryOne Book Profit of Rs. 12000+ per lot
Crude oil for August deliveryÂ CLQ2Â +0.01%Â lost 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in electronic trading.
Investors are eyeing the U.S. crudeÂ oilÂ inventoryÂ data from the Energy Information Administration due later in the day as they expect a decline for crude stockpiles by 1 million barrels which would indicate that demand for the commodity in US, world’s largest consumer is strong.
Crude Oil Inventory Data :Â
Previous 6 Weeks Inventory Data :
|Jun 20, 2012||2.861M||-1.110M||-0.191M|
|Jun 13, 2012||-0.191M||-1.411M||-0.111M|
|Jun 06, 2012||-0.111M||-0.488M||2.213M|
|May 31, 2012||2.213M||0.558M||0.883M|
|May 23, 2012||0.883M||0.950M||2.128M|
|May 16, 2012||2.128M||1.736M||3.652M|
If Inventory Data Comes Â around Expectation Levels , We Advise to Buy NYMEX Crude Above : 79.65 Levels, For Short profits
Those who Are Holding Short Positions are Advised to Exit if itÂ SustainsÂ above 79.60
Important Support andÂ ResistanceÂ Levels for Crude Oil areÂ
NYMEX Crude Oil – Aug’12 Â
MCX Crude Oil – July’12 Â
Â Free Recommendation (Momentum-HIGH RISK) : Crude Oil MCX Buy Above : 4565,T1:4580,T2:4600,SL:4510 @ 27.06.12,05:04 PM
US DOE Petroleum Â Data Update @ 08:00 PM Â Â
Impact: Data might supportive for oil prices. From technical end short term trend is still bearish but smart pull back is expected.
Free Recommendation (Update) : Crude Oil Call, Buy Given Above : 4565,High Made:4638,Profit:3500+ per lotÂ @27.06.12,08:02 PM
Our Morning Call: (Given to Paid Members Only)
|27-06-12 10:08||Sell Lead @ 100.8T1:100.3 T2:99.5 SL above:,101.9 SecondSell:101.4 -www.Commodity20.com|
Base Metals Update @ 1:30 PM
Cancelled warrant ratio : Â Â Â Â
LME INVENTORY IMPACT:
Metal inventories witnessed stockpiling except Aluminum while the cancelled warrants have declined consecutively for the third day. Overall it may continue to have negative impact on metal prices
Morning Premium Call Update :
|6/27/2012 13:35||Book Profit in Lead,All Targets Achieved,Cmp:99.50Profit:6500+perlot- www.Commodity20.com|
Evening Update : 05:00 PM
As foreseen in our morning calls base metal futures have declined by 0.2 to 1 percent and are presently trading mixed with Aluminum and Copper in the positive territory. The Asian equities closed with mild gains and the European equities are also slightly positive. Lower German consumer prices supported slight gains in the shared currency and the same is slightly up by 0.06 percent against the greenback. Fundamentally, cancelled warrants have declined indicating weak spot activity and may continue to weaken base metals in the evening. However, better durable goods order and increased pending home sales may provide slight respite to the metals pack. Therefore, positive expectation in the evening releases may support gains and we recommend initiating fresh selling positions expectation weak development ahead of the Euro-summit. Aluminum inventories have declined consecutively for the third day and may restrict much downside in the evening. Overall we expect base metals to remain weak for the rest of the evening session.
Update : FreeÂ StrategyÂ PositionalÂ Call Given onÂ 21.06.12,01:32 PM: Sell Zinc @ Cmp:104.30,Buy Aluminium @ Cmp:104.8,Current Different : 0.5 point,Expected :3, StopLoss: -3 points (Look â€“ 15 Days) @ 21.06.12,01:32 PM
Book Full Profit in Zinc-AluminiumÂ Strategy PositionalÂ call:
Zinc : Sold@104.30, Cmp:100.90, Aluminum:Â BoughtÂ @ 104.8, Cmp:104.8,
Call Given atÂ DifferenceÂ of 0.5 point, Current Difference: 3.9 points,
Everyone Book Full Profit: Rs.17,500+Â per lot @27.06.12,09:55 PM
Sell Zinc @ 215.4 Target 213.90 stoploss 216.5 www.commodity20.com
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